Michael Hennessy, Senior VP, Regulatory and Government Affairs, TELUS interview @ Banff World Media Festival 2011

I first met Michael Hennessy, Senior VP, Regulatory and Government Affairs, TELUS, at 2007 Banff Next Media. It was in a session where the new media panelists were beating up/”bashing” the telcos pretty badly. And then one panelist wondered out loud why there weren’t any telco representatives present in the session!? To the surprise of that panelist and everyone else (including myself), Michael, attending as a member of the audiences, identified himself as a Telus executive and tried to present Telus’ perspectives/views. (update: I just found a photo in Flickr of Michael in that 2007 session!)

So even though I don’t usually agree with Michael‘s telco views/analysis, I respect him for speaking up that day.

So it was my pleasure to be able to interview Michael, Senior VP, Regulatory and Government Affairs, TELUS@Banff World Media Festival 2011.

The following are a few highlights of my interview video with Michael. By the way, also check out my video interview with WIND Mobile Chairman/CEO Tony Lacavera.

* 0:00 I asked Michael for his take on the Banff session where he had a few “debates” with Tony Lacavera, Chairman & CEO, Globalive/WIND Mobile.

* 1:35 Telus’ views of the recent Federal Court of Appeal ruling where WIND Mobile won (against Public Mobile and Telus)? Is Telus going to appeal the court decision along with Public Mobile to the Supreme Court of Canada?

[Kempton’s note: Michael gave a long and specific answer here. At the time of my interview with Michael, I didn’t have time to read/scan the “Globalive Wireless Management Corp. v. Public Mobile Inc. (2011 FCA 194) A-78-11, A-79-11” decision yet. See more comments from me in note 1.]

* 3:30 Will Telus support the appeal to the Supreme Court? Michael talks about Telus’ key focus this summer: e.g. safeguard against vertical integration, policies around spectrum auctions that are coming out.

*4:08 Michael stated, “Voice, video, and data are all going over the same pipe. You can’t regulate or treat the carriage of that differently.” And what Telus likes the government to do.

* 5:02 About the government upcoming frequency spectrum auction.

* 5:44 What about the big telcos bidding and, basically, stockpiling frequencies and NOT using them?

* 6:18 So Telus is rolling out the use of those new [AWS] frequencies now? 2012 or 2011?

* 6:45 According to Telus’ HSPA+ network builder Huawei, Telus’ HSPA+ network is the busiest in the world. (fyi 2011 news: “Huawei Opens New Headquarters in Canada“)

* 7:12 Telus’ customers are already using up the network capacity they have and thats why they are moving to LTE.

Michael stated, “We are not warehousing. Remember, unlike some of the other incumbents, we hold no spectrum at 2500 [MHz]. They hold well over 100 MHz. So thats the critical difference.”

* 7:30 My question, “So from Telus’ prospective […] Telus won’t oppose to the idea if the government say ‘If you want to auction/bid on the new frequency spectrum, one of the requirement is you have to have used up or committed funds to use your existing warehoused frequency spectrums first’ ?”

TIME: The 25 Best Financial Blogs

For the record from TIME magazine,

“The 25 Best Financial Blogs

From Paul Krugman to Freakonomics to the Consumerist, we compiled a list of the most influential (and useful) finance blogs out there and then asked some of the best-known bloggers to review one another’s work”

Credit card fraud: Prevention/detection

*** “Legitimate” voice message from “CIBC credit card fraud department” at “1-866-454-4339” ?

Is this telephone fraud or is it for real?

“Hello, this is the CIBC credit card fraud department calling. We have an urgent message for yyyy. Please note that this is not a sales call. And it is important that we speak with you. Please contact CIBC at 1-866-454-4339 at your earliest opportunity. A representative will be available to assist you 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The number again is 1-866-454-4339. Thank you very much and have a nice day. For your convenience, this message will repeat again. Hello, this is the CIBC credit card fraud department […]“

A friend recently received the above message. In a series of articles about credit card fraud, I will share with you my reactions, investigations & recommendations to credit card users and the credit card companies.

*** Trusting a random voice message? When in doubt, what to do?

Should you trust a random and machine generated voice message claiming to be your credit card provider? My reaction and advice is of course NOT! With so many cases of reported telephone and internet fraud, people are correct to be VERY skeptical of random phone calls concerning their private financial information.

– Problem: At press time, research and investigation by the author has confirmed the toll-free number 1-866-454-4339 is NOT even listed in CIBC’s official information/website. How can people trust this as a valid toll-free number? Comments: This serious mistake that can be easily fixed. First of all, it makes 100% sense to list the fraud department’s toll free number on the bank’s official website. Better, print the fraud department’s 27/7 toll-free number on the back of credit cards, and ask the customers to call the toll-free number on their credit card!

– Comments: For security reason, customers don’t know and can’t really confirm who call them (incoming calls’ caller id can be spoofed/faked) BUT they can be more certain of who they call (after all, they dial the digits themselves). So fraud department should really ask their customers to call them directly using well-publicized number and not just an unpublished toll-free number.

The moral of the story for customers and CIBC credit card fraud department (yes, 1-866-454-4339 is indeed CIBC’s number) is this: When in doubt, be polite but don’t trust random people. Using only toll-free numbers you can be 120% SURE are from the financial institutions. Don’t trust any other unofficial sources, websites, or blogs (including this blog). Your financial information is too important to blindly trust some stranger.

[update: With this new reader comment, I revised my the moral of this story to simply, “When in doubt, be polite but don’t trust random people. Using only toll-free numbers you can be 120% SURE are from the financial institutions.“.]

*** Fraud detection

The fraud department customer service agent wasn’t able nor willing to share much information. But here is a few noteworthy pieces of information based on what was implied,

– They seem to have no idea when did the fraud happen. The official line was: it could have happened in the last year! Yes, 12 months!

– If they detect lots of potential fraudulent activities from a merchant, the fraud detection department seems to be quite defensive and will re-issue/cancel customers’ cards who transacted at that merchant.

CRTC must reverse internet usage ruling: Industry Minister Tony Clement

From Industry Minister Tony Clement’s tweets yesterday, looks like the government has made up its mind to order the CRTC to start over on the issue (see also “CRTC must reverse internet usage ruling: Clement” [from CBC]). University of Ottawa law professor Michael Geist made a point (emphasis added), “Given that there is no reason or obvious legal mechanism for the CRTC to withdraw its UBB opinions, this appears to confirm that the government will order the CRTC to start over on the issue.”

As a consumer and content creator, I think UBB is bad for Canada. I am interested to watch the exchanges/discussions between CRTC chairman Konrad von Finckenstein and House of Commons industry committee members later this afternoon (4-5:30pm EST, Feb 3, 2011) (4:08pm EST update: LIVE feed in progress). If the government want the CRTC to start over, won’t the government/committee need to give some NEW directives to the CRTC?

P.S. Also see Michael’s post, “The Government’s Review of Usage Based Billing: What Should Come Next“.

P.P.S. On a personal note, four of my friends are trained “free market” economists and I am pretty sure it would be a lot of fun if we were to chat about this issue further.

iPhone 4 users screwed

Torstar “Apple tightening the screws on iPhone 4”

“Apple stores are replacing screws on iPhone 4s brought for servicing with tamper-proof screws to prevent anyone else from opening the device.

Kyle Wiens, chief executive of iFixit, a prominent Apple repair and parts supplier, said the purpose of the new screws is to keep people out of the iPhone and prevent them from replacing the battery. He said he noticed in November that screws were being switched.

“If you took your car in for service and they welded your hood shut, you wouldn’t be very happy”,” he said, comparing it to shutting owners out of their iPhones.”

iFixit, “Apple’s Diabolical Plan to Screw Your iPhone”

iFixit, “Apple’s Latest ‘Innovation’ Is Turning Planned Obsolescence Into Planned Failure”

****

Also check out this insightful article about lithium-ion polymer batteries, “Zen and the Art of Battery Life“.

President Obama and President Hu Press Conference – 2011, Jan 19

President Obama and President Hu Press Conference – Good to see the full press conference posted online.

The Q&A starts at about 16:54
(note: This YouTube clip has a very useful interactive transcript function where you can use to jump to various time codes. Highly recommended.)

17:00 Reporter asked President Obama and President Hu about human rights.
25:06 Question Chinese reporter from China Central Television.
39:34 Bloomberg reporter asked President Hu about human rights which wasn’t answered by President Hu because of “translation problems”.

Jan 25, 2011 Update: I have some harsh words in this entry, “Embarrassed conference interpreters at President Obama and President Hu Press Conference“. See the comments section for other people’s different views.

China’s Annual New Year Migration – CBC radio program “The Current” (中國農曆新年大遷徙)

From CBC radio program “The Current” about China’s Annual Migration. Highly recommended. The following are program info from CBC. See here, here, here, and my interview with Lixin for more info about Lixin Fan’s “Last Train Home” (some have video clips).

Last Train Home will be released on DVD on February 22nd, 2011.

“China’s Annual Migration
We are two weeks away from the Chinese New Year and the largest annual human migration on the planet. Nearly 150 million Chinese have migrated to cities in search of work. And the trip home for the holidays isn’t going to be easy.

PART THREE

China’s Annual Migration – Lixin Fan

We started this segment with the sound of the world’s largest annual human migration. It happens around Chinese New Year. Tens of millions of people who migrated to China’s cities in search of work leave those cities and go back home to their families in the countryside. There are at least 150 million rural migrant workers in China. And as you can hear, a lot of them pass through the Guangzhou train station in southern China.

In two weeks, that annual migration will begin again. Amidst the sea of humanity, it’s easy for individual stories to get lost. Lixin Fan is a Chinese-Canadian documentary film-maker who follows one family caught up in the move from the countryside to the city and back again in Last Train Home. The film has just been nominated for the Directors Guild of America prize. Lixin Fan was in New York City.

Last Train Home will be released on DVD on February 22nd.

While many Chinese migrate from the countryside to the cities, many others stay behind. We hear the story of one woman who lives in a small village called Hazelnut Valley or Da Jen Yu. It’s about an hour from of Beijing. She’s 58. All of her children have left home. Her son lives in Beijing and makes a living as a driver working for foreigners.”

Canadian’s Abroad – Business News Network 11-01-14

Have a watch of this video. Very insightful, highly recommended.

BNN SqueezePlay : January 14, 2011 : Canadian’s Abroad [01-14-11 5:30 PM]

“Three million Canadian’s live abroad. And some estimates say that number could double over the next decade. BNN speaks with John Ralston Saul, author, “A Fair Country” & President, PEN International & Co-chair, Institute For Canadian Citizenship.”

You don’t know what you can learn – New Quote I Love

Here is a new addition to my list of quotes I love.

“You don’t know what you can learn until you try to learn.” – Nobel Economist Ronald Coase, in an interview conducted on 28th & 29th, December 2010 when he was 100 years old

Interview with Nobel Economist Ronald Coase on his 100th birthday

Check out this extensive interview with Professor Ronald Coase conducted by Wang Ning on December 28 and 29, 2010 at Chicago. [Source: University of Chicago Law School] The following are excerpts that I found particularly insightful to me from the interview (with emphasis added). Read the full interview yourself. Highly recommended.

WN (Wang Ning): First of all, happy birthday, professor Coase. As you know, Chinese economists are now holding a Conference in Beijing, “Coase and China”, to celebrate your 100th birthday. To my knowledge, no other western economist, probably with the exception of Karl Marx, has ever been so honored in China. The reason is twofold. It first has to do with the powerful influence of your ideas. Second, you clearly have a special feeling toward China. In Chinese culture, reciprocity is a high virtue. The first question many Chinese people have in mind is, what got you interested in China?

RC (Ronald Coase): I don’t know why I am interested in China. I have been interested for a long time, too long for me to remember. I read Marco Polo many years ago, probably as a schoolboy. It was an impressive book. I don’t think anyone can read the book without being impressed by the Chinese civilization. It went back many centuries. It made great achievements long before the rise of the West. That impression stayed with me forever.

[…]

RC: That wouldn’t happen. I was able to do my work at Chicago just as freely as I was at Buffalo.

WN: I think you were right. Given Steve‘s character, I don’t think anyone could stop him from developing his own thought.

RC: I am glad that I later strongly urged Steve to go to Hong Kong. I did not know how much good it would do. But given Steve’s influence in China, I think it was a good move.

Prof. Ronald Coase, Happy 100th Birthday!

I would like to wish Prof. Ronald Coase good health and all the best on his 100th Birthday (Dec 29th, 2010) and his new book to be published in 2011 (see attached Economist article)! “… Mr Coase will publish a new book in 2011, with Ning Wang of Arizona State University, on “How China Became Capitalist””

By the way, I have watched the following lecture videos by Prof. Coase probably over 5-10 times already and I am still learning something new every time. Enjoy. Note: More info after the videos.

Also check out the following,

– (video) Ronald Coase: “Markets, Firms and Property Rights”

– Audio (downloadable) Ronald H. Coase: The 17th Annual Coase Lecture

– Ronald Coase Discusses Global Warming Regulation – Of Individual Liberty and Cap and Trade

– For the record, from Stephen N. S. Cheung “（2011.01.04）科斯百岁了”

And from Economist,

Why do firms exist? – Ronald Coase, the author of “The Nature of the Firm” (1937), turns 100 on December 29th
Schumpeter Dec 16th 2010 | from PRINT EDITION

FOR philosophers the great existential question is: “Why is there something rather than nothing?” For management theorists the more mundane equivalent is: “Why do firms exist? Why isn’t everything done by the market?”

Speed Camera Lottery paid driver $3,000 for slowing down

Excerpt from TorStar “Speed Camera Lottery pays drivers for slowing down“,

“The mere mention of photo radar can set motorists’ teeth gnashing, but what if a portion of the money collected from speeders went into a lottery for law-abiding drivers?

Lifted your foot off the pedal a bit?

Meet the Speed Camera Lottery designed by Kevin Richardson: Senior Producer at Nickelodeon by day and innovative traffic controller by night.

[…] Richardson’s design was placed on a street in Stockholm in an experiment that ended this November. The average speed of traffic on the street before the experiment was 32 kilometres per hour. The average speed during the experiment was 25 km/h, a 22 per cent reduction.

“This is a really positive thing – drive legally and earn money. Perfect!” one motorist is heard saying on a Fun Theory video.

One lucky motorist received a $20,000 krona ($3,000) cheque.“

NETFLIX to be honored at BANFF 2011

I’ve attended Banff World Television Festival (BWTF) for many years now and I always find lots to learn and few must attend sessions. BWTVF has just announced that NETFLIX will be honored at BANFF 2011 and Ted Sarandos, Chief Content Officer of Netflix, will accept the award and give a feature interview and give people a chance to hear Netflix’s strategy and vision for the future.

You can find more info on how to register for the 2011 Banff World Television Festival here.

Here is the press release text.

Land and the Ruling Class in Hong Kong – 地產霸權 – Alice Poon

In my recent trip to Hong Kong, I made sure I picked up a copy of the 2010 translated Chinese edition of Land and the Ruling Class (地產霸權) by Alice Poon. I will try to write more about the book after I finish it.

Here is an excerpt from a nice review of the original book (in English) in the Canadian Book Review Annual,

“Poon’s concise, well-argued analysis is one of the few available English-language sources on Hong Kong’s predicament. While Hong Kong’s once-vigorous and argumentative press has lost its teeth following the takeover, new outlets such as blogs have assumed huge importance as a barricade for free expression and democratic principles. With Shanghai rapidly eclipsing Hong Kong as the banking and finance powerhouse for China’s breakneck growth, there’s a chance that competition may in fact re-emerge and make for the kind of “popular” entrepreneurship long absent in Hong Kong.“

Alice talked about the case of post-service work of Mr. LEUNG Chin-man in the updated Chinese edition’s introduction. And, yesterday, just by chance, the LegCo Hong Kong issued its “Report of the Select Committee to Inquire into Matters Relating to the Post-service Work of Mr LEUNG Chin-man” (English full report link) (in Chinese “調查有關梁展文先生 – 離職後從事工作的事宜 – 專責委員會報告”).

If you understand Mandarin, here is an interesting video chat about the book.

***

For the record, here is Apple Daily’s report of the news of the LegCo report re the post-service work of Mr. LEUNG Chin-man.

利益輸送 立會裁決 政府認錯 釘死梁展文 – 2010年12月09日

【本報訊】房屋及規劃地政局前常任秘書長梁展文退休後無視利益衝突問題，離職後旋即不避嫌申請到新世界中國任職高層，並獲特區政府開綠燈通過，立法會調查梁展文轉職事件的專責委員會昨天發表報告對梁展文大肆鞭撻，狠批梁展文行為不符前高官應有操守，影響公務員聲譽，更炮轟他作供時刻意隱瞞事實；審批時把關不力的高官無一倖免被點名批評。梁展文卻死不認錯，反斥委員會「砌詞入罪」，但表明不會就此興訟。記者：許偉賢、莫劍弦

Ai Weiwei: Sunflower Seeds – Tate documentary

I love the Tate documentary of Ai Weiwei: Sunflower seeds. Good art and good documentary make you think, make you question, and make you want to understand more.

I am a sentimental man at times and I got a bit emotional watching the Tate documentary, thinking about the plight of people living/working in Jingdezhen (景德鎮), Chinese people in general, and the Chinese political and economics systems.

See “Ai Weiwei, 100 million sunflower seeds, house arrest” for more.

More stills from documentary.

Jeff Skoll: Making movies that make change

It is nice to learn more about Jeff Skoll‘s Participant Productions. In the TED video “Making movies that make change“, we hear Skoll talks about Participant.

Institute for Law and Economics, Peking University

I like to send my best and warmest wishes to congratulate the Institute for Law and Economics, Peking University for its launching on November 1st, 2010, and to my friend Zhaofeng Xue, co-director of the Institute. 祝賀 北京大學法律經濟學研究中心 正式成立。

Looks like the Institute will be studying some really interesting subject matters that will be very important to China’s economic growth and legal system. Here is a translated (to traditional Chinese) excerpt from “中國的法律經濟學現象“. Zhaofeng laid out some very insightful Chinese scenarios and questions, I highly recommend you read the article.

未名湖畔朗潤園，今天舉行北京大學法律經濟學研究中心的成立儀式。 法律經濟學一位創始人Henry G. Manne從太平洋彼岸傳來祝賀，儀式後緊接題為“法律經濟學與中國”的學術研討會。 這個中心關心的，是如何借助發源於美國的法律經濟學範式，解釋中國的法律經濟問題，探索法律、管制與經濟增長三者的動態規律。

最初，人們認為法律的各個部類，財產法、合同法、侵權法、刑法乃至憲法，都是相互分離和獨立的，他們看不到其中的共性；人們贊成這樣的法則，反對那樣的法則，爭論的時候他們缺乏一以貫之的分析工具。 然而，從1930年代起以芝加哥大學為基地，逐步形成了用經濟學工具來分析法律和管制現象的學術運動。 這場運動改變了人們的看法。

經濟學對“權利”概念的錘煉，貫穿了全部分析。 一項權利，代表一種受到社會認可和維護的、對資源的用途作選擇的能力。 這是說，一個人的某項權利，是依靠社會其他成員的主動贊同和維護，才得以實現的。 不存在天然的、先驗的、固定的權利。 法律經濟學要做的，是觀察權利界定演變的現象，分析其中的規律。

[…] 法律經濟學還年輕，而中國遍地是有價值的問題。 北京大學法律經濟學研究中心，目前只有十位成員，包括陳若英、鄧峰、李力行、凌斌、徐建國、姚洋、張帆、周其仁、朱蘇力和我自己[薛兆豐]。 我們彼此應和，也互相爭論；我們有志在這個領域作出貢獻，並期待團隊逐漸壯大。

For information “北京大学法律经济学研究中心简介”

“北京大学法律经济学研究中心（Institute for Law and Economics at Peking University）是北京大学法学院创办、北京大学国家发展研究院加盟、由两院合营的非赢利性学术组织。

Stephen Harper should reverse census decision now

I’ve posted a few articles to explain why Stephen Harper should reverse his census decision now. Here are a few more reasons and views that I share.

“The government’s decision on the census, the debate flowing from this decision, and some commentary from the government on Statistics Canada’s independence and the free ride many users are alleged to enjoy are risking the quality of data from both the operational and trust perspectives. Operationally, the long-form census provides benchmarking for many surveys within Statistics Canada (and outside). These surveys will suffer. By making a decision on a technical issue – which the government has every right to do under the current legislation – the government risks the creation of a trust gap.

It takes ages to establish credibility. It takes much less to tarnish it. […] I urge the government to rethink its position on the census. We still have time to reverse the decision.” – Munir Sheikh, Canada’s former chief statistician

“Imagine. Every religious group opposed the Harper assault, as did business organizations representing everything from Bay Street to mom-and-pop stores, universities, trade unions, social groups, aboriginals, minority-language groups – the list goes on and on. Even international statistics experts, who recently gathered in Vancouver for a conference, condemned the Harper decision.

Canadians witnessed the disgusting spectacle of careerist ministers – Industry’s Tony Clement in the lead – tap dancing to the Prime Minister’s tune. Their justification for dispensing with the long form – the best chance of getting the most accurate data – was a mélange of distortions, misrepresentations and exaggerations of so gross a kind that Canadians recoiled in indignation.

To wit: Statistics Canada officials do not show up at people’s homes at 10 p.m. No one has gone to prison for failing to fill out the long-form census, despite ministerial assertions that jail terms await the recalcitrant. A voluntary form is not an acceptable substitute for a mandatory long form, a Clementism so offensive that it forced the head of Statistics Canada, Munir Sheikh, to quit. Canadians saw honour in Mr. Sheikh’s resignation, although he really had no choice, so distorted were the Clementisms.” – Jeffrey Simpson, Globe and Mail

“This is the fourth distinct reason that the Conservatives have given for cancelling the long-form census, and each one has been found wanting. First, it was too coercive (even though no one has evidently ever been charged for not filling out the census). Then, they argued that the replacement voluntary survey would be sufficient (even though it is more expensive, and more subject to bias). Then, misleading answers – too many people claiming to be Jedi knights – justified the change (even though StatsCan’s adjustments for the mandatory census make it more reliable than any other survey).

Now, in their disdain for the myriad groups that have opposed the decision, the Conservatives appear to be rallying anew, in defence of an idealized individual who needs government help to fight an “intrusive” government census. But ultimately, no such person exists. No individual is disconnected from society. The “they” Mr. Clement is condemning is, in fact, “us.”” – Globe Editorial, Aug 9, 2010

“We should first dispense with the zombie meme of “Many countries have dropped the census, so we can too.” This has been blown away any number of times, but it insists on lumbering across the political landscape in search of brains.

Yes, there are several examples of countries — especially in Scandinavia — that have abandoned the traditional census. These countries maintain databases that keep track of all interactions between the citizen and the State, so a census is simply redundant: the government already knows everything there is to know about you. For example, they know where you live, they know when you moved there (all movements must be registered with the police), and they know from the zoning registries just how many bedrooms and bathrooms you have. They even know your high school trigonometry marks — why bother with a census? If you’re concerned about issues such as privacy and state coercion, these are not counter-examples that you should be citing.” – Stephen Gordon, National Post

******* ******* *******

For the record and for completeness, I’ve included some of the full text of the above articles.

We still have time to reverse the census decision – It takes ages to establish credibility. It takes much less to tarnish it

by Munir Sheikh
Tuesday Aug 10, 2010, Globe and Mail

The Prime Minister, at a recent caucus meeting, took pride in Canada’s economic performance and said it is doing better than many other countries. On social outcomes, Canada is generally regarded as a world leader and a trendsetter.

How do we know this? Because of our statistics. Statistics produced by Statistics Canada, an organization that is respected all over the world, an organization whose advice and leadership is sought by many, including international statistical agencies. I know this because I have heard it with my own ears. I was there. And this reputation exists because of the high quality of its data, Statistics Canada’s hallmark.

There are two distinct parts to producing quality statistics.

Twitter debate btwn @doctorow & @mpjamesmoore (Minister of Canadian Heritage)

This is one insightful twitter debate about Canadian copyright, Apple’s digital locks (TPM) and more, [via @doctorow captured by David Eaves]

“Twitter debate btwn @doctorow & @mpjamesmoore Moore defended Apple’s digital locks. US now says ok to break http://bit.ly/9Pp3uw“

Voluntary Census long-form questionnaire: Wasting 35 years worth of Canadians’ census effort

Statistics Canada and Census are not typical summer fireside chats topics but Industry Minister Tony Clement managed to create a firestorm around the 2010 Census by changing the long-form questionnaire from mandatory to voluntary.

Concerns & Oppositions

An ad hoc Census coalition of bankers, economists, medical professionals, academics, pollsters and other census users have expressed their collective concern in a coalition letter to Minister Clement, (emphasis added)

“We are greatly concerned about this decision [to replace the Census long-form questionnaire with a new voluntary questionnaire]. Loss of the long-form Census information will cause considerable economic and social costs.“

In a phone interview with Census coalition spokesperson Mel Cappe (mp3) (streaming audio), former clerk of the Privy Council from 1999 – 2002, I chatted with Cappe about the process of picking the 2001 census questions and answers. And discussed his group’s concern of a break in the census data series if the filling of the census long-form questionnaire becomes voluntary.

Wasting 35 years worth of Canadians’ census effort

Cappe stated, “For the last 35 years, people have been filling out this long-form of the census in one form or another. And we have been doing this for over 130 years. And now from 2011 forward, we will not have a data point. That means that all those people who filled out the form in the last 35 years did so for nought. Because we won’t have the next point on the series.”

How much time would filling the mandatory census long-form questionnaire take? Cappe explained, “20 percent of the population get asked every five years to fill out this form. […] That means once every 25 years, you got to spend about 30 minutes in answering 41 questions.” To most Canadian citizens, spending about 30 minutes once every 25 years is completely reasonable for the public good of Canada and a reasonable duty.

Impact on Canadians’ healthcare

Canadian Medical Association Journal editorial “Ideology trumps evidence with new voluntary survey” states, (emphasis added)

“[Information from the long-form census] provides accurate and reliable data on social trends and issues, including the determinants of health, such as the relationships among income, gender, education, region, work and other factors that influence access to care and health outcomes. In fact, the long-form census is the only source that brings all these variables together and enables researchers to investigate new ways of understanding the determinants of health.“

Opposition from within Statscan

According to Globe and Mail’s “Clement accused of misrepresenting census impact – Statscan insiders say Industry Minister’s comments playing down effects of voluntary survey enraged staff“, (emphasis added)

“Mr. Clement has said Statscan officials reassured him the agency can manage the 2011 census effectively without forcing some people to fill out the longer version of the form.

That’s not what Mr. Clement has been told, according to a source close to the story who asked not to be identified, and Statscan officials expect chief statistician Munir Sheikh to come to the agency’s defence by saying so. [K: I hope to see the chief statistician’s expert view added in the public discussion real soon.] […]

Don Drummond, a member of Statistics Canada’s advisory council, said “all of us were shocked” by the news that the mandatory long-form census was being abandoned.

The approximately two dozen members of the advisory council are appointed by the industry minister, and advise the agency on how better to carry out its mandate.

Mr. Drummond, who recently stepped down as chief economist of the TD Bank, said the council unanimously believed that abandoning the mandatory long-form census would skew the 2011 results, causing a statistical break with previous surveys that would it make impossible to read and project trends accurately.“

Intrusive questions

To justify his decision, Clement claims some of the census questions are intrusive. But what he should have done was to change the wordings or simply rejecting the questions during the census questionnaire refining process (see 2011 Census content determination process on page 10 of the Census Content Consultation Guide (pdf)).

Provincial governments opposing decision to scrap long-form census in favour of a voluntary application

According to CTV News (with video, emphasis added),

“The governments of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and Prince Edward Island have all come out against the idea, reminding Ottawa that data collected from the mandatory census enables them to draft policy and deliver services.“

Canadians’ personal data collected are anonymous and protected by Statistics Act & Privacy Act

Cappe stated, “There has never been a case, in the history of Canada, in the history of Statistic Canada where someone’s personal census data has been released. All that is released are the aggregation by census track so they add them up.  […] Statistic Canada has an unblemished record of keeping to themselves – private – all of the returns of the census.” So some of the questions may seem sensitive but they are never used to identified Canadian individually.

Anecdotal support vs. thoughtful statistical understanding

It is unfortunate to see Clement relying on anecdotal encouragement from supporters (via Twitter Julius, Adam, Patrick, Paul, Chris, Tyler + Elizabeth) instead of putting more emphasis on thoughtful statistical understanding of the long term negative impact his decision.

In response to this user’s tweet, Minister Clement tweeted back “Actually 168,000 felt strongly enough last time about mand long form to refuse on pain of jail. Yet that sample was deemed valid.” Census coalition spokesperson Mel Cappe, in response to Clement’s statement, suggested if Clement thinks prison sentence is too harsh, then may be a fine of $500 for non-compliant can be used. Have a listen to Cappe’s full response in my phone interview (mp3) with him.

Concluding thoughts

I think Cappe said it right and worth repeating here, “For the last 35 years, people have been filling out this long-form of the census in one form or another. […] And now from 2011 forward, we will not have a data point. That means that all those people who filled out the form in the last 35 years did so for nought. Because we won’t have the next point on the series.”

It should also be noted that many public and private surveys, including the important Labour Force Survey which tells us employment and unemployment figures in Canada, depend on a statistically valid set of Census of Population.

Now, I think it is safe to say most Canadian citizens, as a duty and for the public good of their country, won’t mind spending about 30-60 minutes once every twenty-five years to fill in a mandatory census long-form questionnaire.

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Note: Repeated email questions and phone calls to Statistics Canada have not been returned at press time. It will be interesting to know what has Munir A. Sheikh, Chief Statistician of Canada told Minister Clement? Did the Chief Statistician actually tell Clement that there will be no negative impact by making the long-form voluntary? And previous census results will NOT be less useful as a result this change?

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July 21 update:

– “In an op-ed for the Sun, Tony Clement manages to twice cite the fact that the long form census includes a question about the number of bedrooms in one’s dwelling.” This Macleans article explains some legitimate use of the bedrooms data: “… government planners and private developers to develop housing communities and projects … Provincial and municipal governments use this information to measure levels of crowding within households and to develop appropriate housing programs.“

– Tony Clement answers questions from Globe and Mail in “Tony Clement clears the air on census”. Clement’s answers seem evasive and less than forthright to me.

July 21, 2010 10:48pm MST update:

– “Munir Sheikh, Canada’s chief statistician, resigns to defend integrity of 2011 Census“

– “Canada’s Chief Statistician Resigns Amid Row With Government Over Census“, Bloomberg

– “StatsCan chief quits over census furor“, TorStar

– “Federal statistical folly in full view“, Globe and Mail Editorial

– “StatsCan head quits over census dispute“, CBC News