#Sobering day as //Italian death toll overtakes China’s as virus spreads// (20200319, City News 1130)
* 3405 reported deaths out of 41,035 cases in Italy (quoting JHU Med map data taken as of 20200319 ~3pm data)
* 3249 reported deaths out of 81,155 cases in China
* Let me try to address the widespread distrust in China’s numbers by some HongKongers and Chinese around the world. The dictatorial ruthless Xi BJ gov is rightfully to be distrusted but hear me out …
An #Exponential growth in cases and deaths mean that cases and deaths double in N number of days, say 5-6 days. Thinking like an Epidemiologist (which I am NOT) so lets have a #ThoughtExperiment.
China might be under reporting few (even a large number of) cases here and there BUT the exponential power of #covid19 in its growth and kill figures as China was in an uncontrolled growth phase means that thousands and thousands of deaths need to be hidden.
#ThoughtExperiment In just one (1) month, assuming exponential growth in 5 days. An initial Day01 deaths of 2,000, after just SIX (6) doubling, means that you have 2,000 x 64 = 128,000 deaths on Day30!
Try hiding ~128,000 deaths without having their families and loved ones willing to die to overturn the government!
Of course, if you still don’t trust my #ThoughtExperiment, no problem. Trust that #covid19 doesn’t really give a beep of what we think. It will keep on infecting and killing until it has no one to kill. So Xi as any dictatorial ruthless emperor wants to do, he wants some people to rule over and not to have them all died under his rule.